# Contemporary vs. 5-Year Lagged Demographics

| Variable | Banking (Z_t) | Banking (Z_t-5) | CA Reversal (Z_t) | CA Reversal (Z_t-5) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -0.1589** | | -0.5539** | |
| | (0.0701) | | (0.2339) | |
| Z_2 | 0.0216** | | 0.0984*** | |
| | (0.0105) | | (0.0351) | |
| Z_3 | -0.0008* | | -0.0046*** | |
| | (0.0004) | | (0.0014) | |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.0002 | -0.0002 | -0.0033*** | -0.0034*** |
| | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0010) | (0.0010) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.0007 | -0.0008 | 0.0224*** | 0.0227*** |
| | (0.0015) | (0.0015) | (0.0049) | (0.0049) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0010*** | -0.0011*** | -0.0019** | -0.0019** |
| | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0009) | (0.0009) |
| kaopen | -0.0016 | -0.0017 | 0.0005 | 0.0004 |
| | (0.0012) | (0.0012) | (0.0040) | (0.0039) |
| Z_1_lag5 | | -0.1686** | | -0.4849** |
| | | (0.0699) | | (0.2333) |
| Z_2_lag5 | | 0.0237** | | 0.0886** |
| | | (0.0107) | | (0.0356) |
| Z_3_lag5 | | -0.0009** | | -0.0042*** |
| | | (0.0004) | | (0.0015) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 |
| R² | 0.0080 | 0.0081 | 0.0285 | 0.0289 |
| Countries | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 |

*Standard errors in parentheses. Logit columns report marginal effects at means.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*